Brad Bush, Senior Vice President, HUB International Florida
Florida’s construction industry faces another year where an improving economy and relenting inflation are countered-balanced by uncertainties that will challenge even the most nimble of players.
The state’s roofing contractors will find that adaptability continues to be their most valuable asset for thriving despite the uncertainties, as they employ smart strategies to protect people and projects against the risks that can weaken resiliency. Here’s what’s ahead.
On the national front, 2025 is expected to see new construction spending reach $2.145 trillion and continue on that track through 2028. Much of the momentum in Florida will be propelled by non-residential construction. Hotel, retail and healthcare construction should lead those gains of 5.9 percent, while federal funding for highways and bridges will push nonbuilding construction up by 8.8 percent.
Relenting inflation and mortgage rates also will benefit Florida’s stalled housing market to some extent. Construction of single-family homes, townhomes and multifamily units will begin to pick up but affordability will remain an issue because inventory remains tight as construction expenses continue to rise.
While the improved environment for inflation and interest rates is positive for incoming work, roofing contractors will need to be wary of the downside risks of upward pressures on labor and supply costs. A variety of labor supply challenges will keep wages trending up, at least moderately, while profitability may also be affected by fluctuating material prices.
The shortage of labor in the construction industry shows no sign of improving. It’s likely to be especially hit by the Trump administration’s promised deportation policies.
The industry overall can expect a deficit of 450,000 workers in 2025. That will worsen with mass deportations, as construction’s share of non-U.S. citizen workers is the highest of any other sector at 2.45 million out of 11.38 million employees. Florida’s construction industry fits that pattern as a quarter of its workers, roughly 109,000, are illegal, largely from Mexico and Central America. Roofers are particularly affected. Demand for services is consistently high with increasing frequency of weather events, aging housing stock and the labor pool shrinks even more as existing workers retire.
The labor issue has been a long-standing drain to the industry’s vitality, requiring it to double down on efforts to address it. Registered apprenticeship programs have grown 40 percent in the last decade, with the construction trades accounting for more apprentices than any other sector. Technology can help, too: wearables, for example, can detect falls or lack of movement, making roofing safer and a better employment bet.
Rethinking benefits can also help. Personalized benefits are a growing trend, developed through a deep dive into employee data to uncover what people value to deliver what individuals truly want and need. The end result is an environment that encourages engagement and productivity and improves recruitment and retention capabilities.
It’s not just economic challenges that will keep Florida’s roofers on their toes in 2025. Even less predictable are atmospheric changes of weather extremes and the risks to workers and businesses.
The 2024 hurricane season, for example, was one of the most destructive on record, as 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes battered the Atlantic coastline. Add to that the “endless summer” of 2024 in Florida: by mid-September, South Florida alone experienced over 85 days of extreme heat reaching over 100ºF.
Weather extremes may create more rebuilding work in the long term but in real time they play havoc with project timelines and are a huge risk for workers. Roofing is dangerous work anyway and extreme heat is a leading cause of death for workers laboring outside. When work schedules must be adjusted for weather conditions, the physical work can stretch out by 35 percent. Such conditions, combined with economic forces like inflation and its effect on material
costs and their supply, mean contractors must keep a tight focus on risk management, especially since insurance costs and availability at required limits can be pressured.
A first-class broker is essential to help firms develop a comprehensive claims management plan to get through any type of business disruption. An effective loss mitigation strategy is another way to reduce claim severity by leveraging coverages like extra expense to reduce downtime and minimize losses.
Roofing firms may also benefit by researching insurance solutions relevant to their circumstances. Parametric insurance pays policyholders when weather thresholds pass a pre-specified mark. It’s an option over traditional lines that don’t cover losses stemming from, for example, heatwaves.
Above all, firms should enter 2025 having put their houses in order to effectively manage constantly changing business dynamics. This should include a strengthened risk management strategy supported by an insurance program that’s right for evolving conditions.
Brad Bush is a Senior Vice President in the Jacksonville region for global insurance brokerage HUB International Florida. Brad works throughout the Southeast and specializes in construction, working with contractors on both their surety and insurance needs. He spent the first 10 years working on the insurance carrier side and the balance as an insurance broker.
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