Hurricane season technically starts on June 1, but as those of us who live in Florida know, Mother Nature makes her own rules. Last year, named tropical storms began forming mid-May and continued through November 30, making 2020 the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. There were 30 named storms, 11 of them making landfall in the US. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will issue its initial 2021 hurricane season outlook in late May.
Beginning with this year’s hurricane season outlook, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) will use 1991- 2020 as the new 30-year period of record. This year’s predication is expected to use new numbers for an “average” season – 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5. The previous Atlantic storm averages, based on the period from 1981 to 2010, were 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
NOAA is also updating the set of statistics used to determine when hurricane seasons are above-, near-, or below-average relative to the 30-year climate record. This update process occurs once every decade. “This update allows our meteorologists to make
forecasts for the hurricane season with the most relevant climate statistics taken into consideration,” said Michael Farrar, Director of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “Our work illustrates the value of NOAA’s investments in next-generation
technologies to capture the data that underpins our outlooks and other forecast products. These products are essential to providing the public and local emergency managers with advance information to prepare for storms and achieving NOAA’s mission of protecting life and property.”
The increase in the averages may be attributed to the overall improvement in observing platforms, including NOAA’s fleet of next-generation environmental satellites and continued hurricane reconnaissance. It may also be due to the warming ocean and atmosphere, which are influenced by climate change. The update also reflects a very busy period over the last 30 years, which includes many years of a positive Atlantic multi-decadal oxscillation (AMO), which can increase Atlantic hurricane activity. AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 20–40 years at a time. The AMO has a strong effect on Florida rainfall. During warm phases, the number of tropical storms that mature into severe hurricanes is much greater than during cool phases, at least twice as many. Since the
AMO switched to its warm phase around 1995, severe hurricanes have become much more frequent.
“These updated averages better reflect our collective experience of the past 10 years, which included some very active hurricane seasons,” said Matt Rosencrans, Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “NOAA scientists have evaluated the impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and determined that it can influence storm intensity. Further research is needed to better understand and attribute the impacts of anthropogenic forcing (a change in the Earth’s energy balance due to human ecological activities) and natural variability on tropical storm activity.”
May also serves as a reminder to prepare for hurricane season – for our businesses, homes and families. It’s important to reach out to your employees and help them prepare as well. Just a few hours of preparation can make all the difference before, during and after a storm. Establish lines of communications for employees to reach out and then check on them after an event. Letting them know you care about them and their families will go a long way to getting teams back to work. If their focus is on the needs of their families, they won’t be of much use on a job and quite possibly, a detriment. Purchasing cases of water, phone chargers, flashlights and fuel goes a long way toward building support with your team.
FRSA members can access over 120 different documents for disaster preparedness in the “member’s only” section of www.floridaroof.com. Documents include job site safety, contractor checklists, how to safely enter a site after a disaster, toolbox talks, plans for businesses and individuals, emergency supply lists, contacts and more. Share information with your team
members to ensure they are ready as well.
Now is also the time to reach out to your customers or people who have contacted your business but haven’t made a commitment. Encourage them to sign a contract sooner rather than later. With material shortages worldwide, there is bound to be a long line
of consumers waiting for roof replacements or repairs after a storm. Be sure they know their work may take longer than expected. Contact your suppliers when estimating projects for more accurate pricing, expected delays and material availability.
FRSA is more prepared than ever before in our new building, which has a full building generator. We’ll be able to assist members and offer referrals to consumers. Rest assured, in a storm’s aftermath, you have FRSA to ride out this season’s storms with.
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